Uncertainty analysis of fossil carbon fraction in paper waste in Japan

講演予稿
Oyama, S.; Hirai, Y.; Yano, J.; Sakai, S.; Ueda, H.; Kawanishi, S. (2020) The 6th 3R International Conference on Material Cycles and Waste Management, pp. C-6-3

ABSTRACT
CO2 emissions from paper waste incineration are calculated using the fossil carbon fraction (FCF) of paper waste obtained from the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory in Japan. In the IPCC guidelines, the default FCF value of paper waste (1%) is based on expert judgment, rather than actual data from Japan. Therefore, in this study we aim to accurately estimate the FCF in paper waste by analyzing samples from municipal solid waste.
Paper waste samples were collected during waste composition surveys conducted in 12 municipalities. The FCF in paper waste was estimated by measuring the carbon, calcium, and 14C fractions in the samples and investigating the chemical composition of the paper components. Additionally, we evaluated the uncertainty caused by two factors. The first is the uncertainty of the chemical composition of paper components, which was analyzed by assuming a multinomial distribution for the domestic shipment of components in paper and a uniform distribution for the proportion of monomers in a copolymerized component. The second is the uncertainty of the fractions of different paper types in the waste samples, which was analyzed by assuming a Dirichlet distribution.Consequently, the FCF in paper waste was estimated to be 10.9 ± 2.4%, which is higher than the current default value.

Keywords:

paper waste; fossil carbon; percent modern carbon; waste composition survey; mass balance
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